Wednesday, July 22, 2020

What would Thoreau think? What would Orwell think?

I'm having nightmares about hanging chads.  This is my mental placeholder for all sorts of shenanigans that could happen around the next election, where as a consequence the outcome is in doubt when it actually should be a landslide, and where the vote counting in some state(s) ultimately gets decided by this Supreme Court.  Let us note that the last time this happened, in 2000, the decision ultimately led to WMDs and America at war, which has ripped the nation apart ever since.  But now things seem worse, much worse.  Here is an incomplete list that focuses only on the present. 

  • The CDC announced that the actual number of people who have been infected with the coronavirus is much higher than what has been reported.  The reported numbers are incredibly grim.  If it is much worse than that, we might never be able to turn this around. And based on how other countries have been doing, this is strong evidence of clear mismanagement by government.  We need correct management.  And we need it now.
  • There is a rumor floating about that if Ruth Bader-Ginzburg passes away before the inauguration (she is on chemotherapy for cancer that has returned) that the Republicans will ram through a replacement Supreme Court appointment, even if Biden has been elected the next President, and completely at odds with how McConnell didn't take up the Merrick Garland nomination that President Obama made.
  • Federal Officers deployed in Portland Oregon, wearing military fatigues and driving in unmarked cars, so unidentified but likely employees of D.H.S. and members of a specialized border patrol group there, have been detaining protesters, sometimes injuring them. Their objective is to suppress the protests, though their presence seems to be having the opposite effect.    In Michelle Goldberg's most recent column, she quotes the Yale Historian, Timothy Snyder, who is an expert on what happen when a country is on the path to fascism.  He warns that paramilitary groups who support the current national leader interacting with the local police is a sign that we've reached the end of this path.  The Trump administration is planning to deploy these agents to other cities, without invitation from the local authorities. Further, because they are otherwise not identified, right-wing vigilantes could readily impersonate Federal agents and bring about massive violence on the streets in this manner.
  • CNN had a piece yesterday about election experts fearing that Trump will dispute the results of the election in the event of a Biden victory.  This could lead to Trump embracing strong-arm tactics to stay in office. 

So, it would seem, America is on the path to fascism, if not already there yet. Those in BlackLivesMatter have taken the moral high ground, practicing civil disobedience via peaceful protest.  Indeed, the electorate has clearly changed its views about racism.  At the ballot box, this should signify a substantial victory for the Democrats.  This would be the way that the system auto-corrects itself.

But what happens if that is not sufficient to get the current regime out of office?  And what if the pandemic in the U.S. continues to escalate over the next six months, until the inauguration?  With Republicans still holding a majority in the Senate, is there anything that the Democrats can do now to prevent these dire consequences from happening? 

Apart from ideas that have surfaced in political fiction and the movies, Seven Days in May comes to mind, I wouldn't want to speculate on what might actually be done.  Instead I want to focus on just one issue, the pending budget crisis for the U.S. Postal Service, which might serve as a triggering of some sort of strong-arm reaction.  This budget crisis was getting some attention last month, but not much recently. Yet it is clearly tied to the prospect of voting by mail, which in light of the pandemic is the sensible solution.  (I jut renewed my car registration online after receiving an email from the DMV in Illinois with my personal login information.  It seems conceivable to me that we could vote online in the future, but not this time around.  We're not ready for it.)  Therefore, Trump has every incentive to block renewed funding for the USPS.  If that happens, it will require a fight-fire-with -ire reaction from the Democrats.  This should come to head in early September.

There are all these political strategists out there who must be gaming out this scenario and what might happen in the aftermath.  I hope they come up with something that will get Trump to stand down, soon. All I can think of is that some deal is made with the State of New York that he won't be prosecuted after he leaves office, coupled with a show of force from the military and security agencies, in case he doesn't stand down.

I have no idea how that might be coordinated.  But is there any alternative?

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