Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Is the sky really falling? If so, is it time to bury Caesar?

Let me begin with what I think we know and where we all can agree.  The Russians did meddle a lot in the 2016 election.  Their purpose in doing so was to undermine Americans faith in their democracy.  The Russians have been remarkably successful in doing that.

Now let me speculate some.  If this experience was one-and-done, then we Americans who still maintain some faith in the electoral process will hope the ship can be righted via subsequent elections.  But why should we expect this to be one-and-done when from the Russian perspective that previous effort was so successful?  Indeed, I am writing this piece as reaction to the following quote found here.

“There is a possibility that we may well take up legislation related to this,” Mr. McConnell told reporters. “In the meantime, I think the Russians need to know that there are a lot of us who fully understand what happened in 2016 and it really better not happen again.”

Jawboning the Russians will not work.  I'm sure Senator McConnell knows that.  Do we have other means that will work or not?  The President's recent undermining the efforts of the intelligence community should be viewed in this light. If the President truly is the agent of Putin, making these other means less effective in a way that is overt to the public is a way to further diminish Americans faith in the system.

Now let's consider this perception for voters who cast their ballot for Hillary Clinton in 2016.  The current government is illegitimate because of past Russian meddling.  The future government, the one after the 2018 midterm elections, may also be illegitimate for similar reasons.  Having lost faith in both the government and the process, what course of action is left?  That is what I mean in the title of this post by the sky is falling.

To this group of voters one should add the small business/deregulation types of voters who typically vote Republican.  They may be taking solace in the facts that the stock market is booming and the unemployment rate is quite low.  So they likely don't want to upset the apple cart. However, they may be fearful of what President Trump is doing on international trade agreements.  Further, they may quietly acknowledge that what Clinton voters have anxiety about is real enough and they might grudgingly agree that the current government is not legitimate.  These factors are probably not sufficient to get them to act on these perceptions, but they may sympathize with those who do.

Now let met get to the second question in my title about burying Caesar.  Here I'm thinking of Caesar as McConnell, not Trump.  It is McConnell who blocked the confirmation hearing on Merrick Garland, which in my way of thinking undermines this democracy as much as what the Russians did.  McConnell must be buried now.  Indeed, a vote on Brett Kavanaugh should not take place.  If that can be accomplished, it might serve as palliative to those voters who cast their ballot for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

I'm guessing, however, that it is unlikely to happen.  What then?  The only path I see is that such voters turn into a mob.  Who knows what a mob will do?  There does not appear to be a leader who can control this mob.  My forecast is that this will get very ugly, much more so than it is now.  Now there is the jawboning and hoping for the best.  When that evaporates, what will replace it will be not be pretty. 

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